American League — “Kansas City’s to lose”
Story so far. Kansas City (KCR) is running away with it at 93–43 with a massive +225 run differential. Texas (TEX) sits solidly next at 81–55. Los Angeles (LAD) and Montreal (MON) are in the next tier, with Baltimore (BAL) hanging around. Chicago (CHN) has been a bit lucky compared to their run profile, while LAD has underperformed its underlying numbers.
Strength of schedule (SOS).
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Toughest to date: DET (avg opp “talent” ≈ .527) and CHN (.512).
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Easiest to date: LAD (.492) and TEX (.492).
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Toughest remaining: DET (.562) and CHN (.551).
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Easiest remaining: TEX (.481) and LAD (.490).
(“Talent” is a regressed Pythagorean win rate; >.500 = tougher slate.)
Luck index (actual W% – Pythag):
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Overperforming: CHN (~+0.049), TEX (+0.016).
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Underperforming: LAD (–0.028), BAL (–0.026).
Projected final records (rounded):
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KCR 110–52, TEX 96–66, LAD 89–73, MON 88–74, BAL 86–76, CLE 76–86, CHN 67–95, DET 63–99.
Playoff outlook (assumes 4 AL seeds):
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KCR
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TEX
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LAD
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MON
KCR’s combination of elite run differential and an average-ish remaining SOS makes them the clear pennant favorite. TEX benefits from the softest remaining AL slate, reinforcing a strong #2 finish. LAD’s underlying is better than their record; with an easier run-in they should solidify a top-3 seed. MON edges BAL for the final spot on projection strength.
National League — “Boston on top; PHN next; race for #3”
Story so far. Boston (BOS) is excellent at 84–52 with +142 run differential. Philadelphia (PHN) strong at 76–60. Atlanta (ATL) is holding serve above .500 but with a negative run diff; Toronto (TOR), St. Louis (STL), and Cincinnati (CIN) form the mid/low pack. Tampa Bay (TBA) has had the grind.
Strength of schedule (SOS).
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Toughest to date: TBA (.519), CIN (.504).
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Easiest to date: ATL (.485), CHA (.487).
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Toughest remaining: TBA (.528), CIN (.511).
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Easiest remaining: BOS (.454), ATL (.461).
Luck index (actual W% – Pythag):
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Overperforming: ATL (~+0.042), TOR (+0.011), STL (+0.010).
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Underperforming: CHA (~–0.040), PHN (–0.039), CIN (–0.026).
Projected final records (rounded):
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BOS 101–61, PHN 92–70, ATL 85–77, TOR 73–89, STL 73–89, CIN 72–90, CHA 66–96, TBA 59–103.
Playoff outlook (assumes 4 NL seeds):
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BOS
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PHN
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ATL
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TOR
BOS is the class of the NL and also draws the easiest remaining slate, boosting their 100-win path. PHN’s underlying is strong despite a bit of bad luck; they’re a comfortable #2. ATL’s overperformance likely regresses a touch, but the light ROS schedule supports a #3 seed. TOR projects to edge STL/CIN for the last spot.