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American League — “Kansas City’s to lose”

Story so far. Kansas City (KCR) is running away with it at 93–43 with a massive +225 run differential. Texas (TEX) sits solidly next at 81–55. Los Angeles (LAD) and Montreal (MON) are in the next tier, with Baltimore (BAL) hanging around. Chicago (CHN) has been a bit lucky compared to their run profile, while LAD has underperformed its underlying numbers.

Strength of schedule (SOS).

  • Toughest to date: DET (avg opp “talent” ≈ .527) and CHN (.512).

  • Easiest to date: LAD (.492) and TEX (.492).

  • Toughest remaining: DET (.562) and CHN (.551).

  • Easiest remaining: TEX (.481) and LAD (.490).
    (“Talent” is a regressed Pythagorean win rate; >.500 = tougher slate.)

Luck index (actual W% – Pythag):

  • Overperforming: CHN (~+0.049), TEX (+0.016).

  • Underperforming: LAD (–0.028), BAL (–0.026).

Projected final records (rounded):

  • KCR 110–52, TEX 96–66, LAD 89–73, MON 88–74, BAL 86–76, CLE 76–86, CHN 67–95, DET 63–99.

Playoff outlook (assumes 4 AL seeds):

  1. KCR

  2. TEX

  3. LAD

  4. MON

KCR’s combination of elite run differential and an average-ish remaining SOS makes them the clear pennant favorite. TEX benefits from the softest remaining AL slate, reinforcing a strong #2 finish. LAD’s underlying is better than their record; with an easier run-in they should solidify a top-3 seed. MON edges BAL for the final spot on projection strength.

National League — “Boston on top; PHN next; race for #3”

Story so far. Boston (BOS) is excellent at 84–52 with +142 run differential. Philadelphia (PHN) strong at 76–60. Atlanta (ATL) is holding serve above .500 but with a negative run diff; Toronto (TOR), St. Louis (STL), and Cincinnati (CIN) form the mid/low pack. Tampa Bay (TBA) has had the grind.

Strength of schedule (SOS).

  • Toughest to date: TBA (.519), CIN (.504).

  • Easiest to date: ATL (.485), CHA (.487).

  • Toughest remaining: TBA (.528), CIN (.511).

  • Easiest remaining: BOS (.454), ATL (.461).

Luck index (actual W% – Pythag):

  • Overperforming: ATL (~+0.042), TOR (+0.011), STL (+0.010).

  • Underperforming: CHA (~–0.040), PHN (–0.039), CIN (–0.026).

Projected final records (rounded):

  • BOS 101–61, PHN 92–70, ATL 85–77, TOR 73–89, STL 73–89, CIN 72–90, CHA 66–96, TBA 59–103.

Playoff outlook (assumes 4 NL seeds):

  1. BOS

  2. PHN

  3. ATL

  4. TOR

BOS is the class of the NL and also draws the easiest remaining slate, boosting their 100-win path. PHN’s underlying is strong despite a bit of bad luck; they’re a comfortable #2. ATL’s overperformance likely regresses a touch, but the light ROS schedule supports a #3 seed. TOR projects to edge STL/CIN for the last spot.
timestamp: 8/30/2025
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